On July 24, U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick made a strong statement:

Unless the Chinese government approves the transfer of TikTok's ownership and allows the U.S. side to control the core technology and algorithms of this social platform, TikTok will be banned in the U.S. market.

This is not the first time the U.S. has issued an "ultimatum" to TikTok, nor is it the first time that China and the U.S. have engaged in a game over TikTok in the tech war.

From the Trump administration's divestiture order in 2020, the Biden administration's continued review, to the current third extension of the sale deadline (extended to September 17, 2025), TikTok has been caught between China and the U.S., with its fate repeatedly tugged and uncertain.

Image source: Internet

America’s Anxiety: Controlling the Algorithm = Controlling Influence

“It must be removed from Chinese control.” U.S. Secretary of Commerce Lutnick emphasized in a recent foreign media interview that the U.S. must control TikTok's core algorithm. This technology determines how the platform pushes content to users and directly affects public opinion guidance and value transmission.

TikTok's influence in the U.S. is obvious: according to data from early 2024, TikTok's monthly active users in the U.S. have exceeded 170 million, accounting for more than half of the total U.S. population, and a large proportion of users are young people.

For this reason, the U.S. government's concerns about TikTok have extended from "data security" to "cultural security."

“Americans must have control, technology, and algorithms.” Lutnick also stated bluntly in the interview. In other words, even if ByteDance sells TikTok's U.S. business, if algorithm control remains with China, the U.S. still cannot accept it.

Restructuring Plan: Still Not Up to Standard After Multiple Revisions

In fact, the issue of TikTok's sale is not unsolvable.

In September 2020, ByteDance, together with Oracle and Walmart, proposed a restructuring plan: to spin off TikTok's U.S. business into a new company, "TikTok Global," with the U.S. side holding a controlling stake.

This plan received preliminary approval from the Trump administration, but with the change of administration, negotiations were interrupted again.

After the Biden administration took office, although it withdrew the TikTok ban from the Trump era, it did not relax its security review of the platform.

In 2022, the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) restarted its national security investigation into TikTok, and the final conclusion has not yet been announced.

Until April 2024, the U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the "Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act," requiring TikTok to complete a "secure sale" within 270 days, or else be banned.

The bill was subsequently passed by the Senate and signed into law by President Biden, becoming official law.

The latest extension pushes the deadline for TikTok to complete the transaction to September 17, 2025, but current negotiations are not progressing smoothly.

China’s Position is Clear: “Technology Cannot Be Sold”

For TikTok to continue operating in the U.S., it seems that it only needs to complete a "sale," but in reality, it is far more complicated than it appears.

In 2020, when the Chinese Ministry of Commerce updated the "Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export," it included algorithm-related technologies such as personalized recommendations, meaning that such sensitive technologies require approval from the Chinese government before they can be exported. This has created a policy barrier for TikTok to sell its core algorithm.

In other words, if the U.S. insists on the position of "sale + handover of algorithm," and China firmly disagrees, this deal is almost destined to fail.

Moreover, this is no longer just a problem for TikTok alone. Behind this, it actually involves the entire game and vigilance between China and the U.S. in technology, security, public opinion, and culture.

Users, Creators, Brands: Who is Anxious?

For TikTok's 170 million U.S. users, millions of content creators, and countless merchants who rely on TikTok traffic for brand promotion, the impact of this tug-of-war is very real.

In 2023, TikTok's advertising revenue in the U.S. exceeded $18 billion, accounting for more than 60% of its global revenue; the "TikTok Shop" on the platform also expanded rapidly, with more than 500,000 monthly active merchants in the U.S. market.

Once the ban is truly implemented, it will trigger the following three chain reactions:

1. Users will be restricted or migrate to alternative platforms such as Instagram Reels, YouTube Shorts, etc.;

2. TikTok creators' income will plummet, and their accumulated fans will face the risk of "losing contact";

3. Brand advertising will shift to other platforms, affecting the platform's business ecosystem.

Although the TikTok team in the U.S. continues to emphasize "data localization" and "independent operation," and has even set up "Project Texas" to cooperate with Oracle in building local data centers, this still cannot dispel the U.S. side's core concerns about algorithm control.

The Final Deadline—Will It Be the Last Time?

September 17 seems to be the "life-or-death line" for TikTok's fate, but it may also just be the starting point for the next round of tug-of-war.

Three deadline extensions, repeatedly changing transaction frameworks, and the unwavering bottom lines of both China and the U.S. have made this a complex and protracted "miniature tech cold war."

Whether TikTok will "disappear" in the U.S. is still uncertain. But what is certain is that this short video platform, beloved by young people, has become one of the most sensitive nodes in China-U.S. tech relations, and any change will trigger a series of butterfly effects.

And at the center of this storm, in addition to the platform itself, American creators and brand merchants, many Chinese overseas enterprises are also bearing the risks together with TikTok.

Tuke Overseas, as a comprehensive TikTok overseas marketing service provider focusing on the overseas business growth of Chinese enterprises, will always stand together with domestic overseas enterprises and TikTok merchants in the U.S. region to face challenges together.

Perhaps the answer still needs time to be revealed, but what is certain is that the more we are in the vortex of uncertainty, the more we need to stand side by side.

Tuke Overseas will walk together with all domestic and foreign TikTok U.S. region enterprises and merchants who are holding the front line, quietly waiting for the day when the storm passes!