This document mainly focuses on the cross-border logistics market in 2024, analyzing the market environment, policies, market size, industry dynamics, and future trends.
1. Market Environment: After a period of stagnation, global trade is expected to grow in 2024, with merchandise trade projected to increase by 2.7%. However, risks such as Middle East conflicts and geopolitical tensions remain. The cross-border e-commerce market is developing strongly, with the scale expected to exceed $6 trillion in 2024. Nevertheless, traditional logistics systems struggle to adapt to the fragmented and high-frequency trade patterns of cross-border e-commerce, facing issues such as differences in tariff rules and low customs clearance efficiency.
2. Policy Support: Various national departments have introduced policies to support the development of cross-border e-commerce and cross-border logistics, such as reducing the tax burden on returned cross-border e-commerce export goods, supporting the construction of overseas warehouses, and providing financial support. However, there are also international policy changes, such as adjustments to the U.S. tariff policy on Chinese goods, which affect cross-border e-commerce costs and logistics operations.
3. Market Size: In 2024, China's cross-border e-commerce import and export volume reached 2.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with exports accounting for 69.2%. The number of enterprises related to cross-border e-commerce continues to grow, with registrations reaching a new high in 2024. The cross-border e-commerce sector is active in listings and financing, with many companies going public and cross-border logistics service providers securing significant funding.
4. Industry Dynamics: Many companies are actively deploying cross-border and overseas supply chain systems, such as Cainiao acquiring 4PX, Best Cloud Warehouse announcing its overseas strategy, and several overseas warehouse giants cooperating with e-commerce platforms. In terms of service models, the semi-managed model is on the rise. Compared to the fully managed model, it has advantages in pricing, inventory management, and logistics timeliness, making it more popular among sellers.
5. Future Trends: The development of cross-border logistics faces both challenges and opportunities. Geopolitical factors affect logistics costs and capacity, requiring companies to manage risks. The global cross-border e-commerce market continues to expand, with emerging markets showing great potential and bringing more business volume. Leading companies will have more pronounced advantages, and market concentration is expected to increase. The semi-managed model will continue to develop, logistics service models will keep innovating, and the application of smart logistics will become more widespread.
